Seafood exports in January increased strongly by more than 60%: Expect a big win in 2024

Seafood exports in January increased strongly by more than 60%: Expect a big win in 2024

Vietnam's seafood exports from the end of 2023 have shown signs of recovery and will likely increase again in 2024.

In January 2024, Vietnam's seafood exports reached 730 million USD

According to the Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade), citing data from the General Department of Customs, it is estimated that in January 2024, Vietnam's seafood exports will reach 730 million USD, an increase of 60.8% over the same period in 2023 due to January 2023 coincides with the Lunar New Year holiday.

Information on Industry and Trade, in general, Vietnam's seafood exports from the end of 2023 have shown signs of recovery and will likely increase again in 2024, especially in the second half of the year. In particular, the export of two main seafood products, shrimp and pangasius fish, will recover after a sharp decrease in 2023.

According to forecasts of the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), in 2024, Vietnam's shrimp exports will increase by 10-15% compared to 2023, especially in the last 6 months of the year, when applying Inflation has cooled, inventories at importers have decreased, and shrimp prices have increased again.

While the pangasius industry aims to strive to have a farming area of 5,700 hectares, commercial pangasius output will reach about 1.7 million tons, and pangasius export value is expected to reach 2 billion USD.

Notably, tensions in the Red Sea are causing many difficulties in the process of transporting export goods in general and seafood products in particular when shipping costs increase. Rising selling prices to consumers will greatly affect purchasing decisions.

At the recent meeting to discuss solutions to overcome difficulties for import-export businesses due to the situation in the Red Sea, Mr. Nguyen Hoai Nam - Deputy Secretary General of the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP) ) - said that Red Sea tensions are a matter of concern for the business community, because in addition to the impact of increasing costs, there are also accompanying consequences.

Notably, we also do not know how long the Red Sea tension will last. This affects future orders, or costs that businesses need to calculate into product prices.

Calculated for the total cost for 1 container of goods in the past month, shipping costs to the West Coast are increasing by 70%, but frozen goods to Europe are increasing nearly 4 times. Like other industries, along with difficulties in declining export orders, Red Sea tensions create additional difficulties for the seafood industry.

“Most shipping lines change routes to go around the Cape of Good Hope, in the context that in 2023 both imported and exported goods will decrease by 30-40%, this means that shipping lines will cut down on mother ships. Combined with Red Sea tensions, the shipping time from Asia to Europe is extended to 14 days, thus doubling the delay," Mr. Nguyen Hoai Nam said.

Mr. Nguyen Hoai Nam said that the business community wants to receive more information related to the Red Sea situation to be proactive in production and business plans. At the same time, what export businesses and state management agencies are most concerned about is the cooperation and support of shipping lines, because this is one of the important links in import and export activities. .

Expectations for seafood export in 2024

As Dai Doan Ket enters 2024, according to the Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), it is forecasted that Vietnam's seafood exports will recover and increase sharply in the second half of the year. With adaptation and adjustment to the market context, it is predicted that seafood businesses will help the industry's export sales recover to 9.5 billion USD - 10 billion USD in 2024. In particular, the shrimp industry is Towards the target of 4 billion USD, pangasius will reach about 1.9 billion USD, the remaining seafood products are expected to earn about 3.6 - 3.8 billion USD.

The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development said that 2024 will continue to be a year of many unusual developments, with seafood resources declining. The security and order situation at sea is complicated and unpredictable, countries in the region have increased control over exploitation activities at sea, and our fishermen's fishing grounds have shrunk significantly.

Besides, the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP) said that in 2024, many difficulties will continue to dominate the situation of seafood production and export. In addition, there will be other challenges that will slow down the recovery of exports next year.

VASEP also made 10 comments on market trends and seafood export forecasts.

First, inflation in major countries has been contained, the world economy has bottomed out, but recovery is slow, affecting demand for seafood consumption. The Russia-Ukraine conflict, fighting in the Middle East and other geopolitical issues around the world certainly disrupt global trade, including seafood. Consequences: increased transportation costs, increased prices of input products for aquaculture and seafood processing. It could also cause a new inflationary storm that will affect seafood consumption demand in 2024.

Second, the cycle of price decline for many aquatic species may continue until the end of the first half of 2024.

Third, the US market's demand is slow to recover and there is an increasing trend of importing cheap shrimp from Ecuador. Shrimp exports to the United States will be more difficult if countervailing duties (CVD) are imposed.

Fourth, the Chinese market's demand recovers stronger, but prices are low, making it difficult to compete.

Fifth, feed costs continue to be a major challenge for both the shrimp and pangasius farming industries.

Sixth, shrimp products continue to compete with Ecuador and India in terms of price and supply, the oversupply situation may continue until the first half of the year (world shrimp production in 2024 will increase by 4.8% to 5 .9 million tons). Ecuador and India are increasing their market share in the US, China, EU and Japan, while increasing processed shrimp exports, although the proportion is still modest.

Seventh, with pangasius products, inventory in the US, China, and EU markets is no longer a problem. Export prices will increase again in markets. In addition to frozen fillets, the trend of importing value-added pangasius and by-products (fish maw, pangasius patties) continues to increase.

Eighth, with seafood products, the IUU yellow card continues to be a challenge. If not resolved in 2024, it will cause exports to the EU to stagnate because the procedures for confirming and certifying exploited seafood are still inadequate because resources, human resources and infrastructure are not met. Industries such as tuna, squid, octopus and marine fish are most affected. Regarding consumption, market demand focuses on cheaper product segments such as canned fish, raw fish for processing canned fish, dried fish, and dried shrimp.

Ninth, there will be an increased outsourcing trend after the Chinese seafood processing industry was accused of using forced labor and China's move to ban Japanese seafood imports caused Japanese factories to rush. Go to Vietnam to find processing partners. In addition, businesses may increase the import of raw materials for export production and increase processing for the Japanese and US markets.

Tenth, it is forecast that Vietnam's seafood exports will gradually recover in 2024 and become more positive in the second half of the year. With adaptation and adjustment to the market context, it is predicted that seafood businesses will help the industry's export sales recover to 9.5 - 10 billion USD in 2024. In particular, the shrimp industry aims to spent 4 billion USD, pangasius reached about 1.9 billion USD, the remaining seafood products are expected to earn about 3.6 - 3.8 billion USD.

Many consecutive shipments to major markets right in the first days of the new year are opening a positive signal for Vietnamese goods exports in 2024. The favorable start also brings expectations that exports in 2024 will reach growth rate of 6% and continued trade surplus.

Information on Economy & Urban forecasting the import-export situation in 2024, Deputy Director of the Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade) Tran Thanh Hai commented that this year, the world context is forecast to continue to have Big and unpredictable changes with many interwoven opportunities and challenges.

Specifically, the trend of deglobalization is rising strongly, and protectionist policies are reappearing in many countries in different forms. Developed countries are increasingly paying more attention to issues of consumer safety, sustainable development, and combating climate change, thereby setting up new standards and regulations for imported products.

“Exports still have many growth opportunities in 2024 when the problem of high inventories in many countries is gradually being overcome. The Import-Export Department expects that the target for import-export in 2024 is that total export turnover increases by over 6% compared to 2023. The trade balance continues to have a trade surplus," Mr. Tran Thanh Hai emphasized.

Source:Tạp chí Người đưa tin

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